Navigating US trade hostilities: a strategic deal for SA agriculture - Thulasizwe Mkhabela

These are tumultuous times. Global geopolitics has sharply turned towards isolationism, protectionism, and transactional diplomacy. Under the Trump administration's revived leadership in the US, the world is witnessing the resurgence of trade wars and punitive tariffs. South Africa is finding itself increasingly at the crossroads of this geopolitical chessboard, especially as it pushes ahead with long-overdue reforms in land redistribution and agricultural transformation.

The renewed economic nationalism from Washington is unsettling. For South Africa - a key player on the African continent and a country with a complex yet critical trade relationship with the US - this shift has immediate and far-reaching consequences. Agriculture, in particular, stands vulnerable. The sector, which had begun to reap modest but important benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), now faces the potential of punitive measures that could undo years of progress, should South Africa be excluded from Agoa or face retaliatory tariffs.

However, a crisis often presents an opportunity. Rather than reacting defensively to the changing winds in Washington, South Africa must now adopt a bold, strategic posture. In the spirit of “The Art of the Deal” - President Trump’s own manifesto on deal-making.

South Africa must present an alternative agricultural deal that aligns with US interests while safeguarding its sovereignty and developmental agenda.

Understanding the Trump Doctrine: Transaction over Tradition

To propose a viable alternative, it is important to first understand the logic of Trump-era trade policy. It is not rooted in long-term multilateralism, but in short-term, bilateral, interest-based bargains. The Trump doctrine is transactional, not transformational. Loyalty is secondary to leverage. Therefore, appealing to shared democratic values or historical partnerships will not suffice.

South Africa must instead present a proposition that appeals to strategic self-interest - something that offers value to American farmers, businesses, and consumers while allowing South Africa to maintain its own agricultural development trajectory.

The Alternative Deal: Market Access in Exchange for Investment and Technology

Here is the crux of the proposed deal: South Africa can offer targeted, preferential access to certain agricultural sub-sectors - such as high-value horticulture (e.g., avocados, citrus), wine, or even niche organic produce - for US investors and agribusinesses in exchange for technology transfer, value-chain investment, and skills development.

This is not a call for liberalised dumping of US goods into South Africa, nor is it an invitation for land grabs. It is a pragmatic proposal: American firms can invest in joint ventures with local farmers, agritechs, and cooperatives. In return, they gain access to South African and regional markets, a young and growing workforce, and new agricultural frontiers. In parallel, this can be tied to a renewed bilateral investment treaty, with clauses that protect national interests and promote inclusive agricultural growth.

South Africa also holds cards the US may find valuable. Our agri-export gateway into SADC and the broader African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) provides American firms with indirect access to over 1.3 billion consumers. In today’s age of food insecurity, climate risk, and supply chain disruption, partnerships with resilient African producers are more of a strategic necessity than a charitable gesture.

Building New Alliances: Decoupling Dependence

Still, it would be unwise to place all our eggs in the Washington basket. South Africa must simultaneously pursue aggressive diversification of its agricultural export markets. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and our fellow BRICS partners - especially China and India - offer expanding consumer bases and increasing demand for food products.

South Africa should expand bilateral trade agreements and phytosanitary harmonisation with these markets. Our fresh produce, livestock, grains, and processed foods can find lucrative homes outside the West - provided we are agile enough to meet quality standards, ensure traceability, and invest in logistics.

We must also invest in intra-African trade. With AfCFTA, South Africa can become the continent’s agri-logistics hub, exporting food and agricultural inputs while importing labour-intensive crops and products from neighbours, thereby strengthening regional integration and buffering global shocks.

Protecting Agriculture from the Politics of Punishment

Land reform is a moral, historical, and economic imperative. It must not be sacrificed at the altar of trade deals. Yet, the risk of punitive action from Western countries - citing investor concerns or alleged property rights violations - is real. South Africa must therefore build a diplomatic firewall, rallying support from allies in the Global South and leveraging its leadership in institutions such as the African Union, G20, G77, and BRICS.

By framing land reform within the global discourse of equity, food security, and climate resilience, we can shift the narrative from confrontation to cooperation. International actors must understand that transformation in South Africa is not anti-investment - it is pro-sustainability, pro-development, and in the long term, pro-stability.

Turning Headwinds into Tailwinds

The current trade turbulence, sparked by US unilateralism, is indeed unsettling. But it should not lead to paralysis. South Africa has agency. By making a smart, values-aligned but interest-driven deal with the US, and at the same time reducing its dependence through strategic diversification, South African agriculture can navigate this storm and come out stronger.

In the spirit of The Art of the Deal, let us not negotiate from a place of desperation, but from a position of possibility. Let us be bold, pragmatic, and visionary. South Africa’s farmers - emerging and commercial alike - deserve nothing less.

Dr Thulasizwe Mkhabela is an Honorary Research Fellow with the African Centre for Food Security and the University of KwaZulu-Natal (MkhabelaT1@ukzn.ac.za) and an independent agricultural researcher and policy analyst. He is also a director and Senior Researcher at Outcome Mapping (www.outcomemapping.co.za; thulasizwe.mkhabela@gmail.com). Dr Mkhabela is also a Food, Agriculture, and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network  associate.
*** The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of Independent Media or IOL.
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