Green energy set to overtake coal

Melanie Gosling

Environment Writer

GREEN energy is now the second largest generator of electricity in the world after coal, and is set to become the leading source of new electricity within 20 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2015, published this week, the agency said renewable energy would overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by the early 2030s.

Last year, renewable energy accounted for almost half of all new power plants built globally. The report said in the run-up to the COP21 climate summit in Paris next month that there was a “clear sign that an energy transition” was under way.

“The climate pledges submitted in advance of COP21 are rich in commitments to renewables,” the report said.

The report said more countries were adopting policies to support a transition to greener energy, which included the US Clean Power Plan and China’s carbon trading scheme, which would come into effect in 2017. These policies had led to a “record-high” installation of 130GW of renewable energy worldwide last year.

Energy-efficiency regulations in industry, buildings and transport had nearly doubled, rising from 14 percent of the world’s energy consumption in 2005 to 27 percent last year.

Full implementation of the pledges made by more than 50 nations for COP21 would need a cumulative investment of $13.5 trillion (R191.4 trillion) in low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency until 2030.

The report warned that despite global progress made to cutting greenhouse gas emissions, “efforts are not yet enough to move the world on to a pathway consistent with the 2°C climate goal”.

It said emissions from the energy sector were forecast to increase to 36.7 gigatons in 2040 – 16 percent higher than in 2013.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said the current pledges of emission cuts implied a temperature increase of 2.7°C by 2100. Climate scientists have said the increase must stay below 2°C to avoid dangerous climate change.

“As the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions, the energy sector must be at the heart of global action to tackle climate change. World leaders meeting in Paris must set a clear direction for the accelerated transformation of the global energy sector,” Birol said.

The report warned that if the oil price remained at $50 for a decade or more, cheaper oil from the Middle East would come to dominate exports, with 75 percent market share. “The prospect of oil prices remaining low for an extended period cannot be ruled out,” it said, and that oil would rise to $80 a barrel by 2020.