The impact of rising US tariffs on global trade

 In April 2025, the United States triggered a steep and rapid escalation to its import tariffs; one that mirrors the magnitude of the 1920s, but which was delivered in a matter of months, rather than years. This policy shift, implemented in two phases, introduces considerable risk to the global economy and materially alters the macroeconomic outlook.

While we expect that the effects on trade volumes, investment sentiment, and broader real economic activity – in the US and globally – are likely to be keenly felt, we remain hopeful that diplomacy and legislative checks will eventually temper the extent of these outcomes.

The most significant tariff hike since the Great Depression

On 5 April 2025, the US imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, exempting only USMCA-compliant goods from Canada and Mexico. However, far higher tariffs have been imposed, as of April 9, 2025, on some countries that the US argues have adopted especially protective trade measures against US exporters. Once exemptions are accounted for and factoring in additional tariffs imposed earlier this year on China, as well as US imports of automotives, steel, and aluminium, the effective increase in US import tariffs is close to 19%, which leaves the overall effective US import tariff at more than 20%. The situation is fluid. At the time of writing, indications are that a further 50% tariff is to be levied on imports from China over and above the cumulative 54% increase in tariffs announced in the year to date (with some exclusions). If sustained, the implications of this would be dire, starting with an increasing probability of a US recession, which holds obvious negative consequences for the global economy.

It took more than a decade – from 1918 to 1932 – for the average US import tariff to rise by a similar amount previously. The pace and scale of this year’s hikes are without precedent in the post-war era.

From scenario to reality

The increases align with assumptions we had previously reserved for a low-probability, high-impact “worst-case” scenario. Even if tariffs are ultimately scaled back towards the baseline increase of 10% – which seems unlikely across the board given the rapid announcement of reciprocal tariffs by, for example, China – this represents a material jolt to the global trade system.

Historical precedent offers a sliver of optimism: the tariffs imposed under Phase 1 of the 2018 US-China trade dispute were eventually scaled back through negotiations and exclusions. It also appears that several countries are willing to deliver concessions to reduce announced tariff increases. That said, the risk of a trade war reflected in further escalation with, for example, China, remains, especially in the apparent absence of a moderating force in the US Congress. However, given the extent of the fall-out, we hold out the hope that there will be sufficient pushback from lawmakers and society more broadly to deliver a more tempered outcome.

Implications for the US economy: recession risk rising

The economic consequences are already materialising. Given the shock to sentiment, which is likely to weigh heavily on the US economy, it seems reasonable to argue the recession probability is above 50% if there is no meaningful roll-back of the tariffs announced and the current tariff regime is maintained.

Business confidence is deteriorating, and capital expenditure plans are likely to be curtailed.

However, a full recession may only materialise once job growth turns negative – a historically reliable, albeit lagging, indicator. In recent times, elevated household net worth – supported by buoyant equity markets – has allowed US consumers to maintain spending. However, given the fall in the equity market, the implied decline in wealth can be expected to prompt households to increase savings and reduce consumption.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Inflation Expectations survey shows that consumers are bracing for an inflation shock. A pronounced shift in consumer sentiment, paired with falling net wealth and lower real incomes, would likely weaken household spending and overall economic activity markedly.

The Federal Reserve’s dilemma

The US Federal Reserve appears reticent to cut its policy interest rate. However, given the rising risk of recession, it seems reasonable to expect the Fed to ultimately cut its policy rate if the US enters a sharp downturn. Although US inflation is expected to increase materially in response to the tariff shock, a rising unemployment rate would reduce the risk of a wage-price spiral developing. A lower US policy interest rate could mitigate but not eliminate the impact on emerging markets, including South Africa. As usual, the rand is the shock absorber, which holds inflation risk, although some countries may attempt to offload previously US-bound export products cheaply.

Impact on South Africa: trade and sentiment in focus

South Africa’s direct trade exposure to the US is relatively modest but not insignificant. In 2024, goods exports to the US amounted to R156.8 billion (7.6% of total South African goods exports and 2.1% of GDP).

The US has announced a 30% tariff increase for South Africa. After taking the 25% US import tariff increases on aluminium, steel, and motor vehicles into account, while also adjusting for exclusions, we estimate the overall effective US tariff increase for South Africa is likely to be less than 20%.

This is still a large increase and is likely to see a sharp decrease in South African exports to the US, including motor vehicles. Some exclusions may also be rescinded. The impact will be far greater than losing our AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act) status alone. Downward revisions to South Africa’s GDP forecast for 2025 are already emerging. Combined with heightened geopolitical risk, the effect on business sentiment and investment could be more pronounced, particularly given South Africa’s dependence on the US for foreign capital, especially portfolio capital, which is highly liquid.

Geopolitical tensions are also resurfacing. The US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act, previously shelved, has been revived under a Republican-controlled Congress. Full financial sanctions (including exclusion from SWIFT) remain a low-probability scenario.

A global reorientation away from the US

The shift in US trade policy also has broader implications. While the US remains a major economic force, we expect many countries, especially in emerging markets, to pivot towards alternative trade corridors. Trade linkages among non-US economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, are likely to deepen. But the transition will not be without friction. Countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh – facing effective tariffs of over 40% – may endure severe near-term dislocations before new opportunities emerge (although we should watch for potential concessions that lower the announced tariff increases).

At the same time, the role of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency is open to question. Currently, there is no natural alternative to take over the mantle of the US currency, which continues to hold a liquidity premium. However, in time, capital may well drift towards alternative assets.

A structural shift with wide-ranging consequences

What began as a shift in US domestic policy could rapidly become a structural realignment of global trade. The magnitude of tariff escalation is reminiscent of the 1920s, though today’s economy is far more interconnected, financialised, and reliant on cross-border capital flows.

Again, we remain hopeful that diplomacy and legislative checks will eventually temper the impact. But in the interim, expect short-term effects on trade volumes, investment sentiment, and real economic activity. This is not simply a trade spat. It is a systemic shock to the global order.

* Kamp is a chief economist at Sanlam Investments.

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