In this article, we analyse the performance of investment markets in the first quarter of 2025, focusing on the JSE's impressive gains and the challenges faced by the US market amid economic uncertainties.
Image: AFP
In this column, I look at how the investment markets performed in the first quarter, up until March 31. I do not cover what economists are now referring to as “Trump's Tariff Tantrum” on April 2, also called a “self-inflicted wound” by former US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, and the havoc that the US government’s tariff announcements and subsequent flip-flops have wreaked on the world’s financial markets. While the US market was already pricing in some negativity, as we’ll see below, we were, on March 31, experiencing a relative calm before the storm.
The JSE enjoyed a bumper 12 months to the end of March. The FTSE/JSE All-Share Index (Alsi) closed at 88,637 points, off slightly from its all-time high of 90,149 points on Wednesday, March 19. It had risen 5.1% over three months, from 84,095 points on December 31, 2024, and 15.9% (from 74,535 points) over 12 months. The Alsi total-return index, quoted by Corion Capital in their monthly report using data from Morningstar, was up 5.9% for the quarter and 22.9% for the 12 months.
Resource stocks performed best over the quarter – the FTSE/JSE Resources 10 Index rose by 33.7%, chiefly on the back of surging gold and platinum group metal prices.
Financial stocks lost ground (-1.7%) but were still up an impressive 28.6% for the year.
Bonds performed almost as well as the local equity market over 12 months, but stalled in the first quarter of 2025: the All-Bond Index was up 0.7% for the quarter and 20.2% for the year.
During the quarter, the US market started to slide. For almost two years, it had soared mostly on the back of the wild gains made by the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks: Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Apple, Meta (Facebook et al), Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The S&P 500 Index, which tracks the US’s largest 500 companies by market capitalisation (how much they’re worth on the stock market), reached a peak in mid-February, but by the end of March was down 4.6% for the quarter and up just 7.2% for the 12 months. That’s a lot lower than the 26.7% it had achieved in the previous 12 months. (Note that these percentages are in US-dollar terms.)
Although the S&P 500 tracks 500 companies, the Magnificent Seven comprise about a third of the index. It’s interesting to take a closer look at what has been happening in this space, considering their global dominance. Moves are in the share prices in US dollars (see table).
MAGNIFICENT SEVEN: QUARTERLY AND 12-MONTH PERFORMANCE
| Company | Quarterly performance to March 31, 2025 | 12-month performance to March 31, 2025 |
| Alphabet | -18.0% | 2.6% |
| Amazon | -13.3% | 5.5% |
| Apple | -11.3% | 29.5% |
| Meta | -1.6% | 18.7% |
| Microsoft | -10.9% | -10.8% |
| Nvidia | -19.3% | 19.9% |
| Tesla | -35.8% | 47.4% |
All the stocks are down over the quarter, with Tesla down more than a third. Tesla is, however, still up 47.4% for the 12 months. Nvidia, the microchip maker, soared spectacularly in 2023 and most of 2024 (during which its share price grew an astonishing 10 times), but has been falling since its peak in early November. Meta has been the most steady of the bunch, dropping only 1.6% in the first three months of 2025.
Rand-denominated collective investments invested in global markets retreated over the quarter. The MSCI World Index (which tracks shares in developed markets but in which the US tech giants make up more than 21%) dropped 5.3% in rand terms and was down 4.2% for the 12 months.
Quoting the Corion report, here are the one-year performance figures for the most popular collective investment categories until March 31:
The SA economy Q1
While the JSE boomed, the local economy faltered. In discretionary fund manager INN8 Invest’s quarterly commentary, Albert Louw, practice manager at Stanlib Multi-Manager, says: “In 2024, our economy expanded at the slowest pace in four years as most sectors failed to contribute due to logistical constraints, weak consumer spending and poor fixed investment. GDP expanded only 0.6% compared to 0.7% in 2023 – its worst performance since the height of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.”
National Treasury forecasts the economy to grow by 1.9% this year and the International Monetary Fund forecasts only 1.2%.
Consumer Price Index inflation was 3.2% in February, holding steady at the bottom of the South African Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range. However, expectations are that it will settle around the middle of the range (about 4.5%) going into next year.
The SARB kept interest rates unchanged at 7.5% at its March meeting after three consecutive cuts of 25 basis points each. Louw says one of the key reasons for the central bank’s decision to hold off on another rate cut was the uncertainty in the global economic environment.
*Hesse is the former editor of Personal Finance.
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