Trump's bid to dismantle multilateralism diminishes US influence

Reneva Fourie

Despite his recent assurances to President Cyril Ramaphosa that he would attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit later in the year, President Donald Trump’s reliability is questionable. Since beginning his second term in office, Trump has distanced himself from international cooperation and multilateral institutions. 

His approach to global engagement appears transactional, unpredictable, and driven more by personal instincts than long-term strategy or shared responsibility.

This trend has become increasingly evident during South Africa’s presidency of the G20. The United States, while formally set to assume the G20 presidency next, has demonstrated a lack of meaningful participation in the lead-up to the Summit. Key officials have been absent from critical meetings. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent missed high-level sessions.

Reports have surfaced that Trump instructed his administration to scale back involvement in the G20 altogether. The US also did not participate in the recent G20 Agricultural Chief Scientists meeting despite assurances to support President Ramaphosa having been given in the Heads of State bilateral. These developments raise serious concerns about the US’s commitment to global cooperation.

The G20 is one of the few spaces where developed and developing countries can collaborate to address global economic and financial challenges. Its member states account for around 85 per cent of global GDP, more than 75 per cent of international trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population. 

However, it does not have a permanent secretariat. The success of the G20 depends on the ability of current, previous, and incoming hosts to work together, building continuity through what is known as the troika system. With South Africa preparing to hand over the presidency to the US, cooperation has become even more important. Unfortunately, the US is not fulfilling its required role.

Trump’s reluctance to engage with multilateral forums is part of a broader pattern. Earlier this year, he issued an executive order requiring a full review of US participation in international organisations. This review is already having several adverse consequences.  Future funding for UNWRA, the World Health Organisation and UNESCO is uncertain.

The United Nations is currently planning significant budget cuts of between 15 and 20 per cent as part of its UN80 Reform Initiative. Although Secretary-General, António Guterres, insists that the US does not directly cause these cuts, the reality is that it has not paid its dues in full. At a time when global coordination is essential, the reduction in funding and staff weakens one of the world’s most important platforms for cooperation.

The financial priorities outlined in Trump’s 2026 budget proposal reflect a similar retreat. It includes only 9.6 billion dollars in new international spending, which represents a reduction of more than 80 per cent when expected rescissions are taken into account.

The administration also plans to cut 15 billion dollars from renewable energy and carbon capture programmes and 4.5 billion dollars from conservation efforts. These proposals send a clear message. The US, under Trump, is turning inward, cutting itself off from collective solutions to the challenges that affect all countries.

This approach is especially damaging to global trade. Trump’s abuse of tariffs, often without consulting allies or respecting World Trade Organisation processes, has undermined the very foundations of the international trade system. By acting unilaterally and ignoring established norms, the US weakens the credibility of institutions that seek to facilitate fair and predictable global commerce.

Despite these actions, work continues. Non-state US actors continue to engage in the technical and policy-related activities of various G20 working groups. Under its G20 presidency, South Africa has advanced a forward-looking agenda focused on inclusive growth, climate resilience, food security, and digital innovation.

These priorities reflect the urgent needs of the Global South and speak to a broader shift in global leadership. China, India, Brazil, and others are stepping up, demonstrating that cooperation can move forward even when one of the largest economies chooses to disengage.

Trump’s absence may grab headlines, but it will not stop progress. The G20 was not designed to revolve around one country. It works best when all members contribute but does not collapse when one refuses to participate as another country can always replace the US for next year’s presidency.

Important initiatives are already moving ahead without the active involvement of the US. Should Trump ultimately decide not to attend the Leaders’ Summit, the impact on the Summit itself will likely be minimal. The real cost will be to the US, which risks losing influence, credibility, and the ability to shape global decisions.

The longer-term consequences of this approach could be even more significant. When the US withdraws from global leadership, it creates a vacuum that others are more than willing to fill. The G20 will proceed, consensus will be reached, and international initiatives will move forward.

By not being at the table, the US risks being left behind, losing further influence, missing opportunities, and a diminished role in shaping global policies. In an interconnected world, isolationism is not a sign of strength but shortsightedness.

The world faces a range of challenges that cannot be solved by any one country acting alone. Climate change, health crises, economic instability, and the regulation of new technologies all require cooperation, coordination, and shared commitment. Forums like the G20 offer a space to build that consensus.

When major economies refuse to participate, they weaken not only the institution but also their strategic position. It is still possible for the US to re-engage and play a constructive role. But doing so will require more than promises. It will require showing up, listening to partners, and contributing to collective goals. 

The G20 will endure. Global cooperation will continue to evolve. And while the absence of the US may delay some progress, it will not stop the world from moving forward. If Trump chooses to sit out the Summit, he will not punish the world. He is sidelining the very country he claims to put first.

* Dr Reneva Fourie is a policy analyst specialising in governance, development and security.

** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL, Independent Media or The African.