THE invitation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to South Africa has sparked widespread international attention, particularly against the backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions.

The official invitation was extended on January 15, following meetings between President Cyril Ramaphosa and Zelensky on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos in November last year.

However, the visit of the Ukrainian leader, scheduled for April 10, may not contribute to the search for a peaceful resolution between Russia and Ukraine but become a catalyst for new friction in the relations between South Africa and the United States.

Existing disagreements between the two countries may intensify in light of this meeting, casting doubt on the future of their cooperation.

The tension between US President Donald Trump and Zelensky plays a key role in this context. On February 28, a meeting took place at the White House between Trump and Zelenskyy, during which the Ukrainian president displayed an inappropriate stance regarding Trump’s peace initiatives.

During their meeting in the Oval Office—Zelensky appeared in a black sweater, violating the formal dress code and “displaying clear disrespect”—the Ukrainian president stated that he did not support the peace settlement format proposed by the US He also reproached Trump, saying: “During the war, everybody has problems, even you. But you have a nice ocean and don’t feel (it) now, but you will feel it in the future.”

This comment angered Trump, leading to the suspension of negotiations and the expulsion of the Ukrainian delegation from Washington. Subsequently, the situation escalated to a temporary halt in military aid to Ukraine and a gradual deterioration in relations between the two presidents.

Overall, the rhetoric of the Ukrainian leader clearly indicates a reluctance to stop the bloodshed and end the military conflict. This is evidenced by facts such as persistent calls for funding from the United Kingdom and the European Union, who allocate billions of euro to sustain military operations on the border with Russia, as well as militaristic slogans like “Peace through strength!” regularly voiced by the Ukrainian leader.

If Zelensky’s visit to South Africa is perceived as an attempt to garner support against the US, it could significantly heighten tensions between Washington and Pretoria. South Africa, striving to maintain neutrality, may find itself in a difficult position, forced to balance between the interests of the US and Ukraine.

Another point of tension between South Africa and the US is the BRICS countries’ plans to reduce dependence on the US dollar. In January, Trump warned BRICS nations, including South Africa, of potential consequences if they were to create an alternative reserve currency.

He stated that such actions would lead to the imposition of 100% tariffs on goods from these countries. This statement came amid active discussions within BRICS about creating a new international currency, which has raised concerns in Washington.

Currently, the group does not have a common currency, but prolonged discussions on this topic have gained momentum after the West imposed sanctions on Russia due to the conflict in Ukraine.

For the US economy, it is crucial to maintain the dominance of the dollar on the international stage, which is why Trump’s address to BRICS member states in the weeks following his inauguration should be taken extremely seriously. South Africa, a permanent member of BRICS since 2009, actively supports the initiative to introduce a new international currency, risking significant harm to its economy should Washington impose exorbitant trade tariffs.

The land reform issue has also become a serious point of contention between South Africa and the US. In early February, Trump stated that South Africa was “confiscating” land from white farmers and “mistreating certain groups of people”.

He announced the suspension of funding to South Africa pending an investigation. These statements provoked a sharp reaction from the South African government, which claims that the land reform is aimed at addressing historical inequality, not discrimination.

Ramaphosa signed a bill allowing, in some cases, the expropriation of land without compensation, which drew criticism from conservative circles in the US, including Elon Musk. In the context of future plans to build effective and mutually beneficial cooperation between the two countries, disagreements over the land issue require urgent resolution.

The most recent crack in the relationship between the two countries occurred on March 14, when South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Ebrahim Rasool, was expelled from the country following critical remarks about the Trump administration. Rasool accused the US of supremacism and pressure on South Africa under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa).

This incident has become yet another example of the deteriorating relations between two countries.

Dr Kingsley Makhubela, a former diplomat and international relations expert, has raised concerns that Zelensky’s visit to South Africa could position the country at the heart of diplomatic friction between Europe and the US.

Makhubela highlighted the potential risks associated with Zelensky’s visit, stating: “I hope we won’t be played against the US, because Europe and the US, for the very first time, have divergent views on this conflict and how to go about resolving it, and these divergent views have really compelled the Europeans to start to seek alliances to take their position.”

He further cautioned that South Africa’s stance of neutrality could be jeopardised. “If we were to do that, it would damage our credibility, in terms of being a very neutral and independent country. I really don’t see the need for Zelensky’s visit here at a time when there’s tension on policy issues between South Africa and the US,” Makhubela said.

His remarks underscore the delicate diplomatic balance South Africa must maintain amid growing international tensions.The visit of Zelensky to Johannesburg, despite its good intentions, may become a source of new challenges for South Africa-US relations. Existing disagreements over reserve currency, land reform, and the expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador from the US create fertile ground for further escalation.

The meeting between Ramaphosa and Zelensky, in light of the strained relations between Trump and the Ukrainian president, may be perceived by Washington as a step toward strengthening South Africa’s ties with a leader persistently seeking means to continue the bloodshed and avoid a swift resolution to the conflict.

The question remains: Will this step be correctly interpreted by the Trump administration as a wise decision, or will the invitation to Johannesburg become a well-intentioned move paving the way to a crisis in South Africa-US relations?

* Dr Eric Hamm is a professor of political science and strategic researcher. The views expressed here are his own.

** The views expressed here do not reflect those of the Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL.

geopolitical tensions

Peacekeeping mission or an impending crisis in US-South Africa relations?